Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
